Longitudinal Assessment Of Childhood Obesity Risk Factors In Urban School Populations

Abstract

Background:  Childhood obesity is on the rise in urban areas, attributed to sedentary lifestyles, unhealthy eating practices and socioeconomic disparities among school-aged children. Objective:  To longitudinally assess the main risk factors of childhood obesity and their impact on the evolution of body mass index (BMI) in urban school populations over a five-year period. Methodology:  A longitudinal cohort study was conducted on 5,000 students aged 6-14 years from 20 urban schools. We collected data on demographic characteristics, diet, physical activity, screen time, sleep duration and socioeconomic status each year. Statistical analyses were conducted using mixed-effects regression models to identify significant predictors for obesity and machine learning models were developed for obesity risk prediction. Results:  At 5 years, the prevalence of obesity increased from 14.8% at baseline to 21.6%. The most significant risk factors were low physical activity (OR = 2.86, p < 0.001), high screen time (OR = 2.41, p < 0.001) and frequent intake of sugary beverages (OR = 1.94, p < 0.01). Conclusion:  The findings confirm the critical role of behavioral and socioeconomic factors in the progression of childhood obesity. Promoting physical activity, healthy nutrition and reduced sedentary behavior through early school-based interventions are important to reduce the risk of obesity in urban school populations.